End of History Illusion

The “End of History Illusion” is a cognitive phenomenon where individuals believe that their personal development and changes have largely peaked and that they will experience minimal change in the future. This term was introduced in a study published in 2013 by psychologists Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel T. Gilbert, and Timothy D. Wilson.

 

The study involved over 19,000 participants across different age groups, who were asked to reflect on how much they had changed in the past decade and to predict how much they would change in the next decade. The results showed a consistent pattern: people of all ages recognized significant personal changes in the past but anticipated far less change in the future.

 

Several psychological factors contribute to the end of history illusion:

 

• Projection Bias: People tend to project their current preferences and values into the future, underestimating the potential for future change.

• Simplified Future Vision: Imagining the future can be cognitively demanding, leading individuals to simplify their future selves as being much like their present selves.

• Anchoring Effect: Individuals anchor their future predictions to their current state, leading to an underestimation of future change.

 

The end of history illusion has significant implications in various areas:

 

• Personal Decisions: People may make long-term commitments (e.g., careers, relationships) under the false assumption that their preferences and desires will remain constant.

• Behavioral Economics: Understanding this bias can help in designing policies and interventions that account for anticipated changes in individuals’ preferences and behaviors.

• Self-Improvement: Recognizing this illusion can encourage individuals to remain open to growth and change, fostering a lifelong learning mindset.

 

The end of history illusion highlights a fundamental aspect of human psychology: while we can recognize our past changes, we often fail to foresee future changes. This illusion shapes our decisions and expectations, underscoring the importance of being mindful of our potential for ongoing personal development.

 

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Cathy&Mark McEnderfer
Exercise and Brain Health

Regular exercise appears to be one of the effective methods of reducing instances of cognitive decline and dementia among lifestyle factors that have been studied as reported in Exercise Dosage in Reducing the Risk of Dementia Development: Mode, Duration, and Intensity - A Narrative Review (Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 202118(24), 13331).

Positive effects for both aerobic exercise and strength training have been identified as resulting in improved thinking and memory, in addition to a decrease rate of dementia in middle age and older adults. Exercise may have a preventive effect due to the neurotrophic factor (BDNF) secreted by the brain, which can help prevent shrinking of the hippocampus, the area of the brain playing a significant role in memory function.   

All forms of movement, be it household chores or gardening, also show a positive impact in reducing risk for cognitive decline. A variety of research designs have shown that the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and overall dementia is reduced in response to physical activity, regardless of the amount of activity. Increasing physical activity among the elderly has the effect of preventing dementia, and it also has the effect of improving dementia, including psycho-emotional aspects such as depression, behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia. 

Adults and older adults should engage in at least 150 min (2 h and 30 min) of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity per week, or 75 min (1 h and 15 min) to 150 min (2 h and 30 min) of vigorous-intensity aerobic physical activity per week, or an equivalent combination of moderate- and vigorous-intensity aerobic activity. Aerobic activity should ideally be spread over the course of the week. 

Benefits have also been shown for interval-based exercise involving short bursts of intense exercise. The benefit of this form of training comes from the increased amounts blood flow to the brain. Research has discovered that during interval exercise, there was a greater overall change in the total accumulated volume of blood flow over the duration of exercise as compared to moderate forms of exercise. 

Dementia can be prevented, and there is a growing body of research demonstrating this. All studies emphasize changing eating and exercise habits, as well as increasing mental training. Exercise has been shown effective to both prevent and delay the progression of dementia. Aerobic exercise and muscle-strengthening exercises are preferable, with all movement being potentially beneficial as well as exercise patterns being established early in life.

 

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Cathy&Mark McEnderfer
Winter is Coming!

Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) is a type of depression that occurs at a specific time of year, typically in the fall and winter months when daylight hours are shorter. Individuals with SAD may experience symptoms such as feelings of sadness, low energy, difficulty concentrating, changes in appetite, and disrupted sleep patterns. While the exact cause of SAD is not fully understood, researchers believe it is related to the changes in light exposure during different seasons, which can disrupt the body's internal clock and mood-regulating systems.

Most commonly, it begins in the late fall and continues into the winter months, sapping energy and making everyday tasks feel more challenging. While the exact cause of SAD is not known, factors like reduced sunlight exposure leading to a disruption in the body's internal clock and a drop in serotonin levels due to limited sunlight can contribute to its onset.

Symptoms of SAD can vary from person to person but may include feelings of sadness, hopelessness, irritability, loss of interest in activities once enjoyed, changes in appetite or weight, difficulty sleeping, and decreased energy. If left untreated, SAD can significantly impact one's quality of life and overall well-being.

Treatment options for SAD may include light therapy, where individuals are exposed to a bright light that mimics natural sunlight, psychotherapy, medications, or a combination of these approaches. Making lifestyle adjustments such as regular exercise, maintaining a healthy diet, ensuring adequate exposure to natural light, and practicing stress management techniques can also be beneficial in managing the symptoms of SAD.

If you suspect that you or someone you know is experiencing symptoms of Seasonal Affective Disorder, it's important to reach out to a healthcare provider or mental health professional for an accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment plan. Remember, help is available, and with the right support, individuals can effectively manage SAD and improve their overall well-being.

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Cathy&Mark McEnderfer
My Level 10 Life

Many of us are all looking to live our lives at the best possible level but can sometimes be limited by not knowing how to balance the various aspects of life. We may be at places in life where we are satisfied, others where we want to improve, and otherwise be challenged in developing a plan for achieving our goals and having balance in life. While the term “work life balance” is a common phrase and a worthy aspiration, the “life” part of this balance is an equation that can be challenging to solve.

Living below our potential can be draining when we settle in relationships that aren’t meaningful, stay in jobs we are not challenged or engaged by, or continue in lifestyle habits that leave us feeling chronically fatigued and unhealthy. Over time the potential for change can seem distant, especially when we are only focused on what is lacking and align with things, we “should” be doing differently. 

In considering how to move toward a greater sense of balance and satisfaction with where we are and where we are going in our life areas, a resource which may helpful can be found at  https://www.lifescarousel.com/level-10-life/

Based on the book The Morning Miracle by Hal Elrod, Level 10 Life can help in assessing our current life situation, where we want to go in the various aspects of life, and where we think we are doing okay. Striving for a level 10 life is a way of helping us feel more in control and able to focus on things that really matter to us.

Level 10 life considers the following eight aspects of life:

  • Finances

  • Health

  • Friendships

  • Home

  • Mental Health

  • Family

  • Career & Education

  • Spirituality

These life areas are first assessed as to how much we value and are attending to each of them. This process can be assisted by taking the Balanced Life Quiz, which asks a series of questions which assess how we are attending and achieving in the 8 life areas. We then can write out our life levels, free of judgment, noting where we are and where we may want to be.

We can then decide on what areas we may want to attend to more and create goals which provide tangible steps toward achieving our goals. This process involves setting goals which are outlined through the process of wring SMART Goals. SMART goals are defined as Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time Sensitive.  Rather than stating “I want to lose weight”, a SMART goal would be “over the next 3 months I will lose 12 pounds by eating a ‘clean’ diet 5 days a week and exercising 4 days a week for 30 minutes”.

Reassessment of the phases of life is recommended every 12 weeks to both monitor progress and maintain awareness of the phases of life that we want to maintain and maybe even consider for further assessment. Keeping a journal or other form of documentation can be a creative and fun way of both monitoring and celebrating the journey we have created for ourselves.

Through this all, we can come to realize our ability to effect change in our lives and come to experience an individually directed process of living our Level 10 Life.


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Cathy&Mark McEnderfer
Coffee May be Good For Your Waistline

That cup of joe in the morning is a pick-me-upper for most but it also may be a cup of medicine for some. A newly published study analyzing data from almost 10,000 people found that a higher level of caffeine in plasma concentrations predicted lower body mass index (BMI), lower body fat mass, and even lower incidents of type 2 diabetes.

The study actually measured certain genetic markers that affect the absorption and metabolizing of caffeine, and found statistically high correlations between caffeine levels and BMI and Type 2 diabetes. No correlation was found to other diseases like atrial fibrillation, heart failure and stroke.

While some of these results had been published before, the new study added more details to the knowledge base on caffeine. While there are still questions about the long-term effects of caffeine use, short term effects as reported in the study are quite positive.

The study adds physical benefits to the list of positive impacts shown in previous studies. There is growing evidence that caffeine reduces the incidence, or delays the onset, of dementia and increases the level of alertness and focus (of interest in particular to those who have forms of ADHD). Most studies indicate that up to 4 cups of coffee are perfectly okay for most adults. It’s not all positive, though, because caffeine can also increase levels of anxiety for those who are susceptible to anxiety.

Since the current study focused on plasma levels of caffeine using genetic markers, it also was not able to examine the effects of high calorie specialty coffee drinks on BMI and diabetes: while an 8 ounce cup of black coffee has only a negligible 1-5 calories, adding a tablespoon of sugar adds 49 calories and a tablespoon of half and half milk adds 20 calories. Compare that to a latte at the coffee shop with 190 calories , a caramel macchiato at 250 (roughly equal to a candy bar), and a white chocolate mocha at a whopping 430 calories (about the same as a double cheeseburger at a popular restaurant chain). In other words, keep it simple! A regular drip or french press coffee may be one step on the way to a slimmer waist.

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Holger Caban
Social Media Makes Us Unhappy - And Here Is Why and How to Avoid It

Some of the few negative mental health consequences that researchers have linked to social media use are disrupted sleep, lower life satisfaction and poor self-esteem. Somehow the same platforms that can help people feel more connected and knowledgeable also contribute to loneliness, disatisfaction and disinformation.

It’s easy to quickly get lost in social media. When people encounter a platform where they can infinitely scroll for more information, it can trigger a similar reward system as in anticipating a winning lottery ticket or going to a fancy restaurant expecting great food. It’s a powerful way that these apps are designed to keep us checking and scrolling, says researcher Amanda Baughan, a graduate student specializing in human-computer interaction at the University of Washington.

The 30-Minute Ick Factor is when people mean to check their social media briefly but then find that 30 minutes have passed, and when they realize how much time they have spent, they have this sense of disgust and disappointment in themselves. Research has shown that people are dissatisfied with this habitual social media use. A lot of people frame it as meaningless, unproductive or addictive.

Additionally, the design of social media can have a lot of power in how people interact with one another and how they feel about their online experiences. For example, when people were encouraged to start talking about something contentious in a comment thread by switching to direct messaging, participants really liked it. Direct communication, even online, helped to resolve their conflict and replicated a solution we use in-person: people having a public argument move to a private space to work things out.

Interventions that make a difference.

Not surprisingly, people only have a different experience when they actively choose to make changes. For example, the most successful were custom lists and reading history labels. In custom lists, the study app forced users to categorize the content they followed, such as “sports” or “news” or “friends.” Then, instead of interacting with Twitter’s main feed, they engaged only with content on these lists. This would be easy to replicate without joining a study, but there would have to be the person’s commitment do doing this on their own.

In a reading history intervention, people received a message when they were caught up on the newest tweets. Rather than continuing to scroll, they were alerted to what they had already seen, and so they focused on just the newest content. Those interventions reduced dissociation, and when the researchers interviewed the participants, people said they felt safer checking their social media accounts when these modifications were present. Several social media sites today allow you to set a timer alerting you to the time you have spent on the app. If you prefer to be a little happier about your use of social media, use that timer!

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Holger Caban
Covid-19 and Pregnancy: A fateful mix

We are approaching two years of living in the COVID-19 pandemic. After a slow start to the research into this special group, there is mounting evidence that pregnant women are more vulnerable than the general population to severe disease. Having COVID while pregnant considerably increases the risk of dying or having several pregnancy-related complications. Yet despite a growing number of studies demonstrating that the COVID vaccines are safe during pregnancy, only about 32% of pregnant people aged 18 to 49 in the U.S. are fully vaccinated (September 25 data point). This figure is especially concerning now that “some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated people,” as noted by the CDC. On September 29, the CDC issued a health advisory strongly recommending COVID-19 vaccination "either before or during pregnancy."

A recent study involving over 700 pregnant women with COVID found pregnant women were at

  • 76 % higher risk of developing pre-eclampsia (a pregnancy complication characterized by high blood pressure),

  • 59% higher risk of preterm birth;

  • five times more likely to be admitted to an ICU ;

  • 22 times more likely to die than those without COVID.

Research has also determined which risk factors make pregnant individuals even more susceptible to severe COVID: employed as health care workers or had underlying medical conditions—including obesity, chronic lung disease, chronic hypertension or diabetes—were at increased risk (which is the same for all people).

Vaccines have been shown to be very safe. Data from more than 3,900 pregnant women who received these vaccines indicated that they did not have increased rates of miscarriages, birth defects or preterm births. And another analysis also did not show an increased risk among more than 2,000 vaccinated pregnant people (i.e., vaccinated before becoming pregnant). The claim circulating on the internet that the vaccine causes infertility has been shown to be entirely unsubstantiated. The most recent ACOG (American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists) advisory now recommends that all eligible people receive a COVID vaccine, including pregnant and lactating individuals.

There is evidence that some of the protective benefits of the vaccine are being transferred to the baby when breastfeeding. The same is, of course, true for antibodies in the mother’s bloodstream during pregnancy: the baby develops the same defenses. Parents instinctively want to protect their babies. For the parents to get vaccinated is the most powerful way of protecting themselves and their babies from the novel coronavirus.

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Holger Caban
FAQs about Employer Mandated Vaccines

The question comes up over and over because the answers are often not what some like to hear. Guidance from the Employee Assistance Professionals Association briefly outlines the general and legal consensus at this point. Here we go:

Can my employer require me to get the COVID vaccine? The short answer is – YES.

Whether the US Federal Government, City of Chicago, Advocate Aurora Health, McDonald’s, United Airlines, etc., the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) stated on May 28th allowed for an employer COVID mandate. There are ADA exemptions, and Title VII (Civil Rights Act) protections for medical and religious reasons to not vax. There is a level of proof (to the employer) required for both. There are employer obligations for accommodation in these narrow circumstances for these specific vaccination opt-outs.

Can my employer fire me for refusing a vaccine? YES.

If the unvaccinated employee “would pose a direct threat due to a ‘significant risk of substantial harm to the health or safety of the individual or others that cannot be eliminate or reduced by reasonable accommodation.” A lawsuit was dismissed by a US Federal Judge over legal precedent when Houston Methodist terminated (or accepted the resignation of) 153 employees after mandating the vaccine. Terminations stand.

Can my employer ask about my vax status? YES.

An employer can ask for proof of vaccination. Under EEOC, an employer’s questions about other medical information get a bit more complicated.

It is still a must that the particulars of a CBA (collective bargaining agreement) be adhered to (pay, benefits, due process, etc.) in this COVID era when employees are represented by a union.

Editor’s note: While, as noted above, some readers may not LIKE the guidance published above, these are the current employment regulations regarding Covid. Some lawsuits currently before the courts may change this, but this is the stand as of today’s date.

American society is built on individualism and individual rights. As we are finding ourselves in a pandemic with rates of infections rising at an exponential level in some areas, at what point will I subordinate my individual rights to the needs of the larger society. Most of us would have very little hesitation to make sacrifices for our children or other loved ones. Maybe it’s time now to come together as a society that says ‘even though I don’t like it, I will do what is necessary to protect my neighbors.’

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Holger Caban
How Can We Be Sure COVID-19 Vaccines Are Safe?

In November, a Covid vaccine developed by Pfizer was approved by the Food & Drug Administration (FDA). Since then, a second vaccine made by Moderna has also been approved and distribution of both of these vaccines has begun. A third one, by AstaZeneca, is close to approval. At least 10 others are in various stages of development or trials. But, what actually does “approval” mean, and what does it tell us about the safety of these vaccines?

The Approval Process

Before a vaccine (or any medication, for that matter) gets its final approval for distribution, it goes through a pre-defined process:

  • Clinical Trials: Starting with only a few human subjects in Phase I, Phase II expands this to several dozen or hundreds until several thousands (about 30,000) are tested in Phase III. These trials are conducted in multiple locations (e.g., clinics, hospitals, universities) and monitored for compliance to a strict protocol and adverse side effects.. Vaccines approved by the FDA have all completed Phase III trials. This is not true for vaccines developed in China and Russia and experts have raised doubt about their safety (doubt does not mean they are unsafe: it only means their safety has not been demonstrated)

  • Independent Expert Review: The Data and Safety Monitoring Board reviews safety and efficacy data from Phase III trials.

  • CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices also reviews the data and makes recommendations about which populations should receive the vaccine first

  • FDA staff and their independent vaccine-advisory committee:

    • both do their own reviews

      safety is one of the FDA’s top priorities when recommending that emergency use authorization be granted to a vaccine (as is the case with Covid-19 vaccines)

  • The western states (incl. WA, CA, OR, CO, AZ) Scientific Safety Review Workgroup gave input on vaccine safety and efficacy before the vaccines were released in WA and other states.

What about side effects? Are there people who should not get a vaccine? And can you stop wearing your mask once you have the vaccine? We have some answers! Read on!

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Holger Caban Comment
Anxiety in the Age of Covid-19

For some the current pandemic and the order to stay at home and to practice social distancing is enough to make them feel uneasy and anxious and excessively concerned. Nobody should minimize the seriousness of what we are experiencing, but excessive anxiety can be equally unhelpful and have a negative impact on others.

Our feature article is loaded with helpful hints and links to websites that offer helpful information and are invaluable resources in this and other situations. Take, for example, the link to a TED Talk about sleep hygiene. Or the link to free online courses from the most prestigious universities and colleges in the world.

Click on the link below for the feature article.

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Holger Caban
Nature's Cure

Spending time in nature is good for you. Areas with more trees tend to be less polluted, so spending time there allows you to breathe easier. Spending time outdoors has been linked with reduced blood pressure and stress, and seems to motivate people to exercise more. Given our human evolutionary history, it makes sense that being in nature allows us to feel at home, secure, near a source of food and water and being able to enjoy soothing vistas. Studies have shown that even just looking at nature pictures, for example in hospital rooms, can have beneficial effects, like reducing stress and speeding the healing process. But when it comes to knowing exactly how much time is required to be beneficial, up until now we had no way of quantifying it.

A new study aimed to better understand the relationships between time spent in nature per week and self-reported health and subjective well-being. The magic number: 2 hours a week. That, according to the researchers is the mark from where on participants noted significantly improved well-being.

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Think Your Kids are Spending Too Much Time Looking at Screens? RELAX!

Kids spend a lot of time looking at screens. And some parents worry because there is frequent news about possible negative effects on mental and physical health attributed to screen time. A new study, however, does not support this narrative: when 388 early- and middle-adolescent kids were assessed for the effects of their screen time, the study found that kids were spending about 5 hours a day looking at screens (and that even excluded homework time), no correlation was found between mental health and increased screen time. If anything, there appears to be a positive correlation between the amount of text messages sent and the social connectedness reported by these kids. The author’s recommendation to parents: Just relax, worry less and talk to your kids more (hopefully not only by texting them)!

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Holger Caban
Sleep Deprivation Inhibits Production of Essential Brain Proteins

Over one third of adults, and about 70% of teenagers, are sleep deprived - with measurable impacts on health and functioning.

Two recent studies show in great detail the important functions of sleep and the impact of sleep deprivation. Researchers found that the brain prepares for the production of essential proteins before bed-time and before waking. But in sleep-deprived brains, the actual production does not take place. It’s a process of “on your marks”, “get ready”, “stop!” This has serious consequences on the brain’s ability to function.

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BPA is bad for your health!

BPA is bad for your health! Food stored and sold in plastic containers, especially when heated, may absorb bisphenol-A (BPA,  a chemical used to harden plastics. A new study examined if there is a connection between the amount of BPA in the body and  heart disease. The results were quite clear:  higher urinary concentrations of BPA metabolites are associated with an increased risk of developing coronary artery disease.

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